Odds Of Winning Any Given Blackjack Hand

  

When comparing hands, only the highest values that are less than 21 are used for each hand. All winning hands pay 1 to 1. In the case of a tie, the bet for that hand 'pushes' and is returned. Side bets - Perfect Pairs and 21+3 This variant of Multi-Hand Blackjack uses the standard rules, but with two exciting side bets. The first bet is mandatory, meaning the player must place bets on the Blackjack spot to be able to place the bets on the side bets.

Odds On Blackjack

Odds are everywhere you look. Seriously. Odds are in a casino, your workplace, your day-to-day live and habits, your marriage and where in the world you live.

Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself:

  • Odds of having twins (21st century) – 3 in 100 or 3%
  • Odds of getting a divorce – 40 to 50%
  • Odds of being stuck by lightning – 1 in 5,000 or 1 in 700,000 in any given year
  • Odds of being audited by the IRS – .4% if you make less than $200,000 / year
  • Odds of being dealt a blackjack – About 4.83%

Odds are just the likelihood that something will happen. As a blackjack player you deal with this all the time.

Lets look at a couple real examples to show you what I mean.

Here are the odds of you busting your hand, depending on what you were dealt:

  • 21 – 100%
  • 20 – 92%
  • 19 – 85%
  • 18 – 77%
  • 17 – 69%
  • 16 – 62%
  • 15 – 58%
  • 14 – 56%
  • 13 – 39%
  • 12 – 31%
  • <11 – 0%

Odds of Being Dealt Specific Hands

Here are the probabilities for being dealt a specific hand:

  • Blackjack – 4.8%
  • Standing Hand (17-20) – 30%
  • Decision Hand – (1-16) – 38.7%
  • No Bust – 26.5%

Here are the odds for the final hands that the dealer will make:

  • Natural 21 – 4.82%
  • 21 (3+ cards) – 7.36%
  • 20 – 17.58%
  • 19 – 13.48%
  • 18 – 13.81%
  • 17 – 14.58%
  • 16 – 28.36%

Dealer vs. Player Odds

Odds of winning one blackjack hand

Finally, here are the odds of the dealer busting based on their up card:

  • 2 – 35.30%
  • 3 – 37.56%
  • 4 – 40.28%
  • 5 – 42.89%
  • 6 – 42.08%
  • 7 – 25.99%
  • 8 – 23.86%
  • 9 – 23.34%
  • J,Q,K – 21.43%
  • A – 11.65%

Of these examples, this is the most useful. Notice what hands the dealer is most likely to bust with. The dealer will most often bust with 4, 5 or 6, followed by 2 and 3.

The odds above are static. There’s nothing you can do to change them. However, you can find ways to improve your odds so that you lose fewer hands and less money. And the less money you lose, the more you can keep to play more blackjack.

Here’s what you can do to improve your odds in blackjack:

  • Use basic blackjack strategy. Without basic strategy you’re playing at an 8% disadvantage. With strategy, however, the odds increase significantly. You’ll be playing at only .5 to 1.5% disadvantage.
  • Find the best games. The rules make all the difference. For example, if you play a 6:5 blackjack game you’re adding a 1.39% disadvantage. If the dealer hits soft 17 that’s another .18%. However, it’s possible to find games where the player is paid 3:2 for blackjacks and the dealer stands on soft 17. So find those games. Also be careful about which blackjack variation you play. The best games to play are blackjack, Spanish 21, Vegas Strip BJ and Blackjack Switch.
  • Avoid side bets. Side bets look exciting, because for a nominal amount you could possibly win a huge jackpot — worth hundreds or even thousands of dollars. The problem is that the odds against winning can be anywhere from 2-40%.
  • Avoid wives tales. There are a lot of bad strategies like never busting (never hit a 12+), mimicking the dealer and assume that the dealer has a 10 in the whole (with ace up). The problem with using any of these strategies is that they increase the house edge from 3 to 10 percent.

You can do other things, too, like count cards or read books (usually a mix of basic strategy, card counting and general how-to’s for casino blackjack). However, you’ll improve your odds at winning at blackjack just by following my suggestions above.

Understanding the Long Run – Sample Size and Variance

I wanted to finish up this article with a brief explanation of odds, and how they work over the long run. You see, I think a lot of people will see the numbers above and get confused when they don’t match their own stats. In other words, someone might go to the casino play 500 hands of blackjack, and wonder why they didn’t get 24 natural blackjacks, or the other way around, why they got 42.

The thing is, odds and statistics are all about the long run. Long run usually meaning sample size, or the total number of hands (or games) played.

What that means is that over a significant sample size, hundreds of thousands or even millions of hands, the number of times you’ll receive a blackjack is about 4.82%. The more hands you play the truer this will become.

The reason why odds don’t match up in smaller sessions, say over 500 hands, is because of variance. There’s a technical term and definition for variance, but I’ll just give you my version; variance is the ups and downs you experience on your way to the long term (expected) results.

Mike Caro, a poker player and author, puts it this way:

A measure of the spread of statistical distribution about its mean or centre.

That means in a short time frame, it’s possible to experience more drastic odds. You might win or lose more than you’re supposed to. It also explains why people can go into a casino, not use basic strategy and win 3x as much as what they walked in with. The cards ran in their favor — they experienced a positive streak of variance.

So that’s the gist of it. So the next time you walk into the casino and have a wild swing one way or another, you know that that’s not normal, and that in the long run you’ll be closer to break-even so long as you stick to basic strategy — the plan with the best odds.

Why play only one hand of Blackjack at a table when you can play Multi-Hand Blackjack Perfect Pairs & 21+3? Enhance your Blackjack experience with exciting side bets: Perfect Pairs and 21+ 3. Play up to three seats at a time and multiply your chances of winning big! All of your favorite bets are here as well: split bets, double-down bets, and insurance bets. A whole new level of play awaits…your table is ready.

  • How To Bet
  • How To Play
  • Options
  • Other Rules
  • Additional Information

How To Bet

Press the chip selector in the lower-right corner to select a chip value.
Press one or more bet squares on the table to place a bet.
The following commands are available during the game:

  • DEAL - Press to begin a game. Place the minimum bet in order to play.
  • DOUBLE BET - Press to double the current bet.
  • REBET - Press after a game to place the previous bet.
  • REBET AND DEAL - Press to place the previous bet and begin a new game with one touch.
  • NEW GAME - Start a new game, and clear the table.
  • CLEAR - Press to remove all bets from the table.
  • UNDO - Press to remove the last-placed bet from the table.
  • DOUBLE REBET - Press after a game to double the previous bet.

How To Play

Multi-Hand Blackjack Perfect Pairs & 21+3
In Multi-Hand Blackjack Perfect Pairs & 21+3, the goal is to beat the Dealer's hand. Each hand has a value that is determined by combining the values of its cards. All face cards are worth 10, Aces are worth 1 or 11, and all other cards are worth their face value. If the value of a hand exceeds 21, that hand is a 'bust' and automatically loses. Aces are worth 11 unless that would cause the hand to bust.
Getting a Blackjack
Two initial cards are dealt to each player (on any bet spot where bets were placed) and the Dealer. The Dealer receives one face-up card and one face-down card. If the two initial cards equal a sum of 21, that hand is a 'Blackjack'.

Who has BlackjackOutcome
PlayerPlayer automatically wins and is paid 3 to 2 on the main bet.
DealerDealer automatically wins and player’s main bet is forfeited.
Both Player and DealerThis is a tie and Player’s bet is returned.

Blackjack Insurance
The game offers Blackjack insurance when the Dealer's face-up card is an Ace. If the Player accepts the Insurance bet offer, another bet equal to half the main bet is placed before the Dealer's hand is checked for Blackjack.

Dealer's handMain bet outcomeInsurance bet outcome
BlackjackForfeitedPaid 2 to 1
Not BlackjackRemains activeForfeited

If the Dealer's face-up card is a 10-value card, the Dealer's face-down card is checked without any Insurance bet offer.
Playing a Hand
If neither the Player nor the Dealer have Blackjack, attempt to improve the outcome by playing out the hand. Depending on the cards that were dealt, choose from the following commands:

  • HIT - Press to draw another card for this hand. Choose to continue drawing cards until the hand value becomes 21 or more. Or, choose to stand and receive no more cards. If the hand value becomes 21, the hand automatically stands. If the hand busts, all bets placed on that hand are forfeited.
  • STAND - Press to take no more cards for this hand.
  • SPLIT - This command is available if the first two cards in the hand are the same value. Press to split the cards into two separate hands and place an additional bet equal to the main bet. Split Aces receive only one card per split hand. Players may split again once per split hand, except for split Aces.
  • DOUBLE DOWN - This command is available for the first two cards of any hand. Press to double the main bet and draw exactly one more card. Double Down on the first two cards of a split hand, except for split Aces.

When play is finished on all hands, the Dealer reveals the face-down card and draws until the value of the hand is 17 or higher. If the Dealer's hand value exceeds 21, the Dealer busts and all non-busted hands win. Otherwise, the Dealer's hand is compared to each non-busted hand. When comparing hands, only the highest values that are less than 21 are used for each hand. All winning hands pay 1 to 1. In the case of a tie, the bet for that hand 'pushes' and is returned.
Side bets - Perfect Pairs and 21+3
This variant of Multi-Hand Blackjack uses the standard rules, but with two exciting side bets. The first bet is mandatory, meaning the player must place bets on the Blackjack spot to be able to place the bets on the side bets.
Side bet - Perfect Pairs
Perfect Pairs is an optional bet, offering players the choice to make a separate wager on whether their two cards will be paired. There are three types of pairs based on the table below. The pairs award payouts at the following odds:

Odds Of Winning One Blackjack Hand

OutcomePays
Perfect Pair (matched suits, e.g. 9s-9s, Ah-Ah)30 to 1
Colored Pair (matched colors, e.g. 7s-7c, Qh-Qd)10 to 1
Mixed Pair (matched ranks only, e.g. 6s-6d, Kc-Kh)5 to 1

Card examples use the following abbreviations: c = Clubs, d = Diamonds, h = Hearts, s = Spades
Side bet - 21+3
21+3 is an optional bet based on the player’s first two cards, plus the dealer’s up card. These award payouts as follows:

Odds Of Winning Any Given Blackjack Hand
OutcomePays
Suited 3 of a Kind (e.g. Qs-Qs-Qs)100 to 1
Straight Flush (e.g. 7d-8d-9d)35 to 1
Three of a Kind (e.g. 3d-3h-3s)33 to 1
Straight (e.g. 9c-10d-Jh)10 to 1
Flush (e.g. 2h-6h-10h)5 to 1

Card examples use the following abbreviations: c = Clubs, d = Diamonds, h = Hearts, s = Spades

Options

Speed

  • NORMAL - Normal speed plays all animations.
  • TURBO - Turbo speed skips certain animations.

Sound

  • OFF - Sound in the game turns off.
  • ON - Sound in the game turns on.

Offer Insurance

  • NORMAL - Offers the Insurance bet whenever the Dealer's face-up card is an Ace.
  • NEVER - Insurance bet is never offered.

Safety Net - Enable/Disable (on/off) the safety net that displays a warning at an attempt to hit on a soft 20 or on a hard 17 and above.

Other Rules

  • Dealer must draw on 16.
  • Dealer must stand on all 17's. This includes soft values where an Ace is worth 11.
  • Player may draw a maximum of eight cards for any hand. An eight-card Player hand automatically wins, regardless of the Dealer's subsequent hand outcome.
  • Cards are dealt from eight decks of standard playing cards, shuffled for each game.
  • Malfunction voids all pays and plays.

Additional Information

In accordance with fair gaming practices required in most legal jurisdictions worldwide, all cards come from a fair deck that has been randomly shuffled. Thus every card remaining in a given deck is equally likely to be the next card dealt.
The odds of getting any particular outcome are always the same. The odds do not vary based on prior outcomes, bet size, balance size, time of day, day of week, etc.
For example, if the top award is won on a given play of the game, the chances of winning the top award on the next play are exactly the same. Likewise, prior losses do not change future odds.
The expected payback reflects the theoretical return across a very large number of plays by numerous players over an extended period of time.
The results for any given player over a play session can vary widely from this long-term, expected average in either direction.
The fewer the number of games played, the wider the normal variance of actual payback that may be experienced.
The expected payback value is also based upon correct player choices for any game that involve main game and/or bonus game play strategy.
Intellectual Property
© 2017 IGT.All rights reserved. All other trademarks used herein are owned by IGT or its affiliates, may not be used without permission, and where indicated with a ®, are registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

Last modification date: 3/6/2018